Bihar’s political arena has always been a tangle of caste loyalties, cash power, and coalition arithmetic. But this election season, a new and noisy wildcard, Prashant Kishor, has entered the fray, injecting high-octane unpredictability into the electoral battle.His fervent exposes, public challenges, bold claims and scathing indictments of established politicians have turned him into a lightning rod for both curiosity and controversy. The question echoing across drawing rooms and dhabas alike is simple but loaded: will PK be a vote katua, a kingmaker, or the king himself?In a state where political identities are inherited, PK is trying to build one from scratch, almost by copying the Arvind Kejriwal template. He is trying to scythe through the political landscape through rhetoric, revelation, and relentless visibility.Like Kejriwal, his appeal lies in the anger he channels, especially from Bihar’s younger, urban, and digital-savvy population tired of dynastic politics and corruption.PK isn't pulling punches. In a flurry of recent interviews, he's doubled down on do-or-die rhetoric. He has declared his party, Jan Suraaj, would either finish “first or last—no middle ground,” framing it as a moral crusade against Bihar's “corrupt duopoly.” He's even staked his career: “I'll retire from politics if Nitish Kumar's JD(U) wins more than 25 seats,” a swipe at the CM's fading aura amid alliance flip-flops and policy U-turns.Pre-poll data, despite questions about their credibility, paint PK as Bihar's rising star. A recent C-voter survey shows Nitish's approval dipping to 28% (from 35% in 2024), while PK's favourability rising to 22%. The survey claims PK has edged out Tejashwi Yadav, whose ratings are now 20%, as the “most preferred next CM.” In online polls, users overwhelmingly picked PK as the next CM over Nitish, Tejashwi, or Chirag Paswan.Unlike his two rival blocs, PK has no fixed caste base. That gives him ideological flexibility, but also creates uncertainty about where his votes will come from. Ultimately, the PK factor boils down to vote-splitting math.In a fractured Bihar (38% OBC, 16% SC/ST, 15% Muslim), PK’s main target is the NDA's upper-caste base and RJD's youth bloc. The consensus within analysts is that if he chips away at the upper caste base of the Nitish Kumar-BJP alliance, he will harm the incumbents. And if he snares youth and first-time voter segments, he could hurt the Mahagathbandhan, which is relying on issues like unemployment and anti-incumbency.But, both sceptics see him as a disruptor, not a viable option. The Mahagathbandhan’s MY–Muslim plus Yadav–base calls him an RSS mole. And the BJP’s upper caste voters believe he is trying to help the rival camp by splitting them. Building trust in a deeply entrenched bipolar landscape will be a huge challenge, especially in the first election.Caste arithmetic, while critical, is no longer the sole determinant in Bihar. A sprawling ecosystem of cash incentives has become entrenched in the electoral process, reshaping traditional vote-bank politics.Over the past several months, Nitish Kumar’s government has announced welfare schemes with nearly Rs 45,000 crore in disbursements planned before the polls. Key programs include Rs 10,000 direct cash transfers to more than 75 lakh women voters under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Kalyan Yojana, monthly unemployment allowances to graduates, free bicycles for students, and other populist measures. These mass transfers directly target voter pockets, aiming to boost turnout and loyalty in critical constituencies.These announcements have whittled away anti-incumbency, and whitewashed Kumar’s image of “Paltu Chacha”, a moniker he has earned with his politics of shifting loyalties and alliances. For PK, and also for the Mahagathbandhan, dealing with the cash benefits is the biggest challenge. For now, they are still searching for a counter offer.In 2015, PK helped craft Nitish’s comeback campaign, helping him in his alliance with the RJD. Before this, PK was the BJP’s poll strategist. This dynamic reflects the shifting alliances and rivalries that define Bihar politics.Ironically, Prashant Kishor’s political trajectory today draws poignant parallels and contrasts with Nitish Kumar’s rise in late 1990s Bihar. Both entered turbulent political landscapes dominated by castes, intent on disrupting entrenched powers.Kumar emerged in the 1990s from a small caste base—the Kurmi and Koeri OBC communities. But he built a durable and large social coalition against the dominant Yadav-led RJD by splitting Dalits and OBCs and reaching out to women.Kumar cultivated a disciplined, reformist image that resonated with voters fatigued by corruption and crime, allowing him to steadily ascend to the chief ministership by 2005.PK’s appeal rests on anti-corruption zeal, youth mobilisation, and a media-savvy confrontational style that seeks to exploit the disillusionment with the Yadavs of the RJD, and anger against Kumar’s flip-flops amid failing health.However, unlike Nitish’s patient groundwork, PK currently functions as a disruptive outsider, perceived mainly as a vote splitter, with an uncertain path toward lasting coalition-building.Nitish’s rise was a classic social coalition combined with pragmatic politics and anti-establishment rhetoric. Whether Kishor can dislodge Kumar by weaponising the latter’s playbook remains one of Bihar’s biggest political questions today.
In Bihar's bipolar landscape, Prashant Kishor injects delicious irony and uncertainty
